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April 2026 Update

Strong El Nino likely with at least a moderate Positive IOD for late winter and spring causing

a drying trend from mid to late winter and moreso spring

• Window of frontal systems now to squeeze moisture out with some promising signs early

for the first half of April

• Flying ants in swarms early this month showing moisture and instability ahead in coming

days, they don’t lie

• More moisture available than many longer-term models have said for April mitigating some drying trends

• Indian Summer after frontal period likely but shorter lived and may extend into May

• A number of Tropical Cyclones to still spawn out of final strong MJO to the east

• Winter outlook broadly average rainfall for June tending slowly below as we move through to August

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