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August 6th 2026 Update

Strong El Niño by the numbers but impacts mitigated by warm Indian

Weak Positive IOD not strong enough to overcome warmer remainder of basin

Strong upper trough and cold front to bring relief against the recent drying trend

with handy falls of 20-50mm for many districts.

Frost risk higher than average under any highs going forward still

Much greater volatility in extremes of wind, temperature and rainfall going into

spring than usual

Drier later month and into September before getting hot.

Increasing thunderstorms from November and December, more likely after heat

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