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Early March 2026 update

El Nino all but certain for 2026 with Positive IOD likely as well to combine for a difficult

spring

• Window of rainfall still around 4-5weeks with MJO in the area but reset needed after tropics

were drained temporarily last event

• Dry spell likley in April but depends how long the moisture from tropics lingers. Likely much

smaller than 2024 and 2025 dry spells in autumn as El Nino can bring better opening rains

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