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Feb 26 Update

Final Notes

• Widespread showers and thunderstorms together with heavy rain areas from significant

tropical moisture will give rise to flooding over the NW and in particular the NE Pastoral.

• Significant rainfall totals may reach as high as 150mm.

• Ex TC moisture to link with cold front and trough to bring patchy rain to agricultural areas on

11th however whilst welcome, falls will be typically under 8mm at this stage.

• El Nino a very sure bet for 2026 with at least a moderate strength but possibly strong.

• IOD likely to be neutral though much harder to tell

• Broadly better autumn than 2025, similar to slightly better winter but taps turning off later

winter to early spring

• Increased risk of frost in any Elnino year

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