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October Weather Update

Peter Blacket

Oct 5

1 min read

El Nino nearing maturity however the peak is still likely in December

• Major dry impacts in September short-lived as increased mobility in pattern brings volatility

and rain bearing systems• Thunderstorms increasing on cue this month, increasing further in November and

December

• Generally average to above average rainfall, increasing to much above average about the

far west for remainder of year.

• Eastern Australia expecting a high-end severe storm season with numerous severe events

• Increased large hail threat this spring with more heat increasing energy for severe storms

• Outlook for 2027 is tricky but weakening El Nino to neutral likely before an attempt at La

Nina later in the year.

• Rainfall likely to be above average through autumn however unlikely to be as wet as 2026 at

this stage

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